While the Florida House last week abruptly ended its probe into the diversion by Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration of $10 million from a Medicaid settlement to a nonprofit tied to his wife, questions linger.

What happens next? Will anyone be held accountable? Or will explosive findings recently uncovered go unexplored and die on the vine?

Even some lawmakers in DeSantis’ party have openly said they think the money transfer to the Hope Florida Foundation was illegal and that people involved may be guilty of crimes.

Yet legal and political observers say whether anyone pursues criminal charges has more to do with politics — including how it plays between DeSantis and President Donald Trump — than Florida or federal law.

What did the House look into?

At issue is $10 million that came from federal Medicaid contractor Centene as part of a legal settlement with the state for the overbilling of prescription drugs. The DeSantis administration directed the company to give the funds to the Hope Florida Foundation, a charity founded to support first lady Casey DeSantis’ Hope Florida initiative.

The foundation then gave the money to two nonprofit groups, which subsequently gave $8.5 million to a political committee controlled by James Uthmeier, who was the governor’s chief of staff. He has since been appointed as the state’s attorney general. The committee helped fund a successful campaign to defeat a proposed constitutional amendment last year that would have legalized recreational marijuana use.

State law requires that money from this type of legal settlement be deposited into state coffers, where lawmakers can oversee it. Federal law also strictly regulates the way funds from programs like Medicaid are used.

Were laws broken? If so, what happens?

The DeSantis administration has denied that the $10 million came from Medicaid funds, saying it was an additional charitable donation Centene made as part of the settlement. But a draft settlement agreement contradicts that claim.

Rep. Alex Andrade, a Pensacola Republican, led the Florida House probe into the matter. It ended last week before many of the players involved testified.

Still, Andrade said he was “firmly convinced” that Uthmeier and Hope Florida Foundation attorney Jeff Aaron “engaged in a conspiracy to commit money laundering and wire fraud.”

“This is looking more and more like a conspiracy to use Medicaid money to pay for campaign activity,” he said last week. “If I’m the U.S. attorney for the Northern District (of Florida), I’d be very concerned about that.”

When asked by the Herald/Times about his comment, a spokesperson for the U.S. Attorney’s Office said, “No comment.”

Who might investigate federal crimes?

Federal prosecutors could invoke any number of criminal laws in a potential case involving the settlement money.

Fritz Scheller, an Orlando criminal defense attorney, said a wire fraud charge would be the simplest case to pursue.

The law on wire fraud is a “darling or go-to federal statute” for prosecutors in any matter involving fraud allegations, Scheller said. Such a case gives the government the “easy burden” of showing that an interstate wire — like a text, a phone call, an email or a money transfer — was used to facilitate a fraudulent scheme.

Other federal laws could apply, too. The law regarding “honest services fraud” tends to be used to combat corruption. If, in fact, the funds came from Medicaid, the criminal law on health care fraud could be invoked.

But just as important as which laws may have been broken are questions of whether the government has the will to bring what would undoubtedly be a complicated, fiercely litigated and politically charged case.

Scheller said that while the U.S. Justice Department is regarded as the agency that tackles the big cases state authorities can’t handle, in reality, they often go after simple, street-level crimes.

“As I’ve said in the past, why bring a difficult prosecution involving suspects with resources, when you can fill the stat sheets by prosecuting minorities smoking pot?” Scheller said.

Ellen Podgor, a professor at Stetson University College of Law and an expert on white-collar crime, said while U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi has deemphasized things like bribery of foreign officials — in February she directed prosecutors to focus less on cases under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act except for those that involve drug cartels and transnational criminal organizations — her approach to white-collar crime is unclear.

“It would appear that the attorney general’s priorities right now are focused in the areas of immigration,” Podgor said. “Every attorney general gets to select their priorities. That’s within their discretion. But I’ve seen some priorities that seem to be taking a back seat now.”

A lot could depend on the attitudes of Trump and Bondi — a fellow Floridian — toward DeSantis.

While they were once allies, relations between the governor and the president soured when DeSantis challenged Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Trump already endorsed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds to succeed DeSantis as governor, even though Casey DeSantis is reportedly mulling a run.

Could Trump use the Justice Department to intimidate him? Darryl Paulson, a professor emeritus of government at the University of South Florida, said he doubts it, but the threat is there.

“We may be a nation of laws,” Paulson said, “but the president often decides which laws are enforced and which are ignored.”

Who might investigate any state charges?

It’s possible, though unlikely, that state authorities could seek criminal charges. In ordinary circumstances, the state’s attorney general could pursue a fraud case.

But that possibility is out with Hope Florida, as it directly involves Uthmeier, who now serves as the state’s chief legal officer. The Florida Department of Law Enforcement, the state’s main investigative entity, which reports to DeSantis, is likewise unlikely to further a criminal case.

An alternative possibility is that a local elected state attorney could bring criminal charges.

Jack Campbell, the state attorney for Leon County, which covers Tallahassee, is the most likely to be in a position to bring a state criminal case. He’s a Democrat. But he told the Times he has little insight into the situation beyond what’s been written in news stories.

“You and your colleagues have done excellent work, and I’m certainly interested in your articles, but that’s all I have right now,” Campbell said.

He said there are “great lawyers” in the Legislature, noting that some of them are former prosecutors.

“I’m confident if they feel they have evidence of a crime, they know how to find me,” Campbell said. “That’s kind of where I am.”

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Herald/Times Tallahassee bureau reporter Lawrence Mower contributed to this report.

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