Scotland leader pushes independence vote after Burnham remarks

Alastair Reed, Bloomberg News on Sep 10, 2026

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Scottish First Minister John Swinney called for new talks with the U.K. government about Scotland’s constitutional future after Prime Minister Andy Burnham appeared to soften Westminster’s longstanding opposition to a second referendum on leaving the U.K.

Swinney, who leads a devolved government in Edinburgh, wrote to Burnham after the new prime minister signaled the U.K. government could allow a fresh independence referendum if public opinion shifted decisively in favor of another vote. Scots voted 55% to 45% to remain in the U.K. in a plebiscite in 2014.

Asked in the House of Commons on Wednesday about the circumstances in which another Scottish referendum could take place, Burnham drew a comparison with Northern Ireland and provisions in the Good Friday Agreement governing a potential poll on Irish reunification. He said such a vote would be on the cards “when public opinion has changed to the point at which the call has to be considered.”

“I would say that it is exactly the same situation in Scotland,” he told lawmakers. “I am not aware that there is majority public support for another referendum, and until that changes, there will not be one.”

Burnham’s comments appear to mark a shift in the U.K. government’s approach by setting out a public-opinion threshold that could open the door to another vote. Successive governments have resisted demands for a second referendum by arguing that the 2014 ballot settled the issue for a generation.

Under the Northern Ireland Act 1998, which implemented key provisions of the Good Friday Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary is required to call a referendum if it appears likely that a majority of those voting would favor leaving the U.K. and joining a united Ireland.

There is no equivalent statutory mechanism for Scotland, where constitutional matters are reserved to Westminster. The 2014 referendum went ahead after the U.K. government temporarily transferred the necessary powers to the Scottish Parliament.

“To go from ‘off limits’ to this is an acceptance of the reality that the people of Scotland will decide their own future - not the U.K. government,” Swinney wrote on X. “For the first time since 2014, a British prime minister accepts that majority support for a referendum should mean one takes place.”

Swinney also pointed to the SNP’s victory in May’s Scottish Parliament election, when the party secured a fifth consecutive term and pro-independence politicians won more seats than at any previous point in the parliament’s history.

Recent polling suggests the constitutional question remains closely contested. An August Survation poll put support for independence at 47%, compared with 43% opposed and 9% undecided, while another poll that month recorded a 48% to 45% split.