A Democrat for governor in red Texas? Some North Texans optimistic about the odds

Some Dallas-Fort Worth voters are optimistic about Democrat Gina Hinojosa’s odds of winning her bid for governor against incumbent Greg Abbott, despite the Republicans’ decades-long grip on the state.

The state representative from Austin was in Arlington on Sunday as part of a North Texas swing in the lead up to Election Day on Nov. 3. Early voting runs Oct. 19-30.

A few hundred people gathered in an event space, holding signs that declared Tarrant County as “Ground Zero” in this year’s race.

Much of the focus this midterm election cycle has been on the U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, who has held a modest lead in polls for the statewide office.

The federal race is often seen as Democrats’ best chance to win Texas, but recent polls are also showing a close race for Texas governor between Hinojosa and Abbott, who is seeking a fourth term. A couple have even put Hinojosa in the lead.

Hinojosa supporters at Sunday’s rally in North Texas were heartened about her statewide prospects – some more cautiously than others.

“I’m always hopeful,” said Christie Michie from Richardson, as she and others waited for Hinojosa to address the crowd. “I think that a lot of Texans, we feel a little bit hesitant to be too hopeful because of what happened to Beto (O’Rourke) and other strong candidates that the Democratic Party has put out there. I think there’s a lot of corruption, and we have reason to be nervous, but hopeful.”

Stephanie Raffety from Dallas was more certain of Hinojosa’s ability to win.

“I’m feeling extremely confident about that,” Raffety said. “I’m talking about her to everybody I know, everybody I meet.”

The biggest thing is getting awareness out – a lot of people don’t know who Hinojosa is, Raffety said.

“I’m like, “Hey, do you know who Gina Hinojosa is?” she said. “Are you educated on her policies and what she’s about? And, I’ll send them her Instagram page and, kind of, get them educated on that.”

Hinojosa, an attorney who grew up in the Rio Grande Valley, has served in the Texas House since 2017. She has favored economic and educational issues on the campaign trail, over “culture war” issues that often dominate election season.

“Is Texas going to be a state that is by and for the people, or is this the billionaire’s world, and we just live here?” Hinojosa said at the Arlington rally. “That is the one fight of this election.”

She was introduced by Democratic elected officials like State Rep. Chris Turner of Grand Prairie, and U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey of Fort Worth, both of whom are wrapping up their terms in their respective elected offices.

“Once we run the score up here in Tarrant County, and Democrats are winning 53,54 percent here in Tarrant County: Game over for Republicans statewide,” Veasey said.

Arlington Mayor Jim Ross, who said he was an independent, also spoke at the event in support of Hinojosa. He confirmed to the Star-Telegram that he’s endorsing her gubernatorial bid. Ross has also endorsed Talarico over Paxton.

“Y’all know I’m going to catch a little bit of hell by coming out here in support of Gina,” Ross said to cheers.

But the city leader said he doesn’t care.

“So, they can bring it on,” Ross said. “We need somebody in the governor’s office that’s willing to actually work with both sides of the aisle.”

That’s not to say beating Abbott will be easy. In an interview, Ross noted that he doesn’t put a lot of weight into polling.

“We’ve all seen polling that has been just wrong, and I try not to get overly excited about any polling on any of that,” Ross said.

Ross said Talarico has a “pretty good shot” of winning Texas.

“I think also, Talarico’s opponent is a lot different than Governor Abbott,” he said, raising concerns about “corrupt” behavior from Paxton.

Abbott is a longtime incumbent, Ross said.

“Anytime you go after a long-sitting, incumbent governor like that, that’s an uphill battle,” he said. “The reality of it is, Governor Abbott hasn’t been impeached. Governor Abbott hasn’t been inducted. Governor Abbott doesn’t have that track record that Ken Paxton has.”

Abbott campaign spokesperson Eduardo Leal touted Abbott’s work on property tax relief and public safety — while dinging Hinojosa’s record — when asked about recent polls and the governor’s odds of winning Texas on Nov. 3.

“Hinojosa wants Texans to believe she’s a moderate, but she’s far from it,” Leal said in the written statement.

Later in the comment, he said: “Texans will have a clear choice between Governor Abbott’s comprehensive vision and Hinojosa’s dangerous record in the Legislature.”

The statement didn’t directly address polling, but Abbott has told CBS News Texas that “polls don’t win elections” and are often wrong. The governor has made multiple stops in North Texas, as Election Day nears.

“What I’m confident about is exactly where my campaign stands and the outcome,” Abbott said, according to the news station. “I’m going to win this race. I’ve got a broader goal, and that’s to keep Texas, Texas.”

North Texans interviewed by the Star-Telegram at the Sunday afternoon event raised concerns about education in Texas, including Texas’ private school voucher program championed by Abbott, and affordability issues.

“I just don’t really like how things are going at this time,” said Shawn Gist from Grand Prairie.

Food prices are high, the cost of fuel is up and home ownership isn’t affordable, said Warren Horgan, who lives in Northwest Tarrant County and attended the rally with his wife Karen.

Karen Horgan is a precinct chair in Tarrant County and thinks top of ticket Democrats like Talarico and Hinojosa have a chance of winning the county locally. The county has tilted between red and blue in countywide elections over the past several years.

“I think they’re looking good,” said Horgan, who also thinks Democrat Alisa Simmons has a “good chance” of winning her Tarrant County judge race against Republican incumbent Tim O’Hare. “I think it’s not a given, but I really do think Tarrant County is on the cusp of turning blue.”

It’s time for a change in Texas, she said.

“The Republicans have been in charge of this state for 30 years, and there’s nothing they can do moving forward that they shouldn’t have already done in those 30 years,” the precinct chair said.