15 moments that shaped the 2026 midterm campaign

WASHINGTON — Republicans began the 2026 election cycle on a high, with a governing trifecta in Washington and heavy optimism that the coalition that swept Donald Trump back into the White House represented a durable new voting bloc. They had a favorable Senate map and insisted there were opportunities to expand their narrow House majority.

But Trump’s policies, economic anxieties, historical trends and an unpopular war have upended the calculus for the midterm elections. At the close of the campaign, the fight for Congress is taking place mostly on Republican turf, a striking shift in less than two years.

Here are 15 moments that shaped the 2026 midterm campaign:

April 2025 – Trump unveils ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs

Less than three months after taking office, Trump made good on a campaign promise: a 10 percent minimum tariff on all imports and higher duties on nations that run trade surpluses with the U.S. Since proclaiming “Liberation Day,” the on-and-off tariffs have injected uncertainty into the economy and hurt key sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing and consumer goods by driving up costs. Polls show the tariffs, which economists estimate have cost the average American household about $1,100, are viewed unfavorably by most voters, likely hurting Republican candidates in several states.

July 2025 – Republican pass ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’

Republicans celebrated a key legislative achievement last summer, with the enactment of the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which they later sought to rebrand as the “Working Families Tax Cut.” The law’s tax provisions became a focal point for the GOP during the campaign, while Democrats slammed the included health care cuts. Before passage, North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis drew scorn from Trump for opposing the measure and soon announced his retirement, opening up a pivotal Senate seat that Democrat Roy Cooper is favored to flip.

July 2025 – Trump calls on Texas to redraw its House map

Trump kicked the mid-decade redistricting wars into high gear when he directed Texas to redraw its congressional lines, resulting in five seats getting revamped in Republicans’ favor. Other GOP-led states followed suit, though Democrats have remained competitive in several of these redrawn districts. Meanwhile, California voters approved a Democrat-drawn map aimed at helping the party flip five Republican seats, and a court-approved map in Utah gives the party a prime pickup opportunity.

November 2025 – Democrats win big in the ‘off year’

Democrats had a big night in the off-year elections, with a pair of decisive gubernatorial victories: former Rep. Abigail Spanberger flipped the Virginia governor’s mansion and Rep. Mikie Sherrill won in New Jersey. The two moderates focused their campaigns on cost-of-living issues, as did progressive Zohran Mamdani in his winning race for New York mayor, giving Democrats a blueprint for 2026.

January 2026 – Fatal shootings in Minnesota spark protests

The Trump administration began sending federal immigration agents to Minnesota in late 2025, but Operation Metro Surge picked up in January and ultimately led to the fatal shootings of two people by federal agents. That in turn intensified Democratic calls to “abolish ICE” and made immigration enforcement a defining issue in Democratic primaries across the country.

February 2026 – US launches war in Iran

Not long after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran, Trump predicted that the conflict would last a few weeks. It didn’t play out that way, and the ongoing war has become a focal point of the campaign. Higher oil costs have led to higher prices, the blame for which Democrats have pinned on Trump and Republicans in Congress. While Trump’s job approval ratings had fallen before the start of the war, they’ve dropped further since then.

April 2026 – Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales resign

Facing serious sexual misconduct allegations, California Democrat Eric Swalwell, who was running for governor, and Texas Republican Tony Gonzales resigned from the House just as their colleagues were preparing to expel them from the chamber. Swalwell dropped his gubernatorial bid and Gonzales left behind an open seat that has grown increasingly competitive.

April 2026 – Supreme Court tosses Louisiana map

In invalidating Louisiana’s congressional map, the Supreme Court pared back the Voting Rights Act and set off a new phase in the redistricting wars, as GOP-led Southern states sought to redraw districts with substantial Black populations. Not all attempts were successful, but Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee ended up with new maps.

May 2026 – Trump endorses Ken Paxton

A week before the Republican Senate primary runoff in Texas, Trump publicly backed scandal-plagued state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s challenge to Sen. John Cornyn. Paxton went on to win that contest, but has had a tougher general election fight against Democrat James Talarico. Two other incumbents the president targeted for defeat — Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie — also lost their May primaries to Trump-backed challengers. But Trump’s endorsement power had its limits: Several of his picks, including Iowa gubernatorial hopeful Randy Feenstra, lost primaries this summer.

June 2026 – Democratic socialists score upset wins in New York primaries

June 23 was a big night for Mamdani as three House candidates he endorsed, including two fellow democratic socialists, won their primaries. Two of them ousted incumbent Democrats, Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat, and a third defeated the hand-picked successor of retiring Rep. Nydia L. Velázquez. The New York primaries kicked off a strong summer for progressive candidates in states such as Colorado, Michigan and Minnesota.

July 2026 – Graham Platner ends his Senate campaign

Maine Democrat Graham Platner appeared to have weathered an array of controversies when he easily won his June primary to take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins. But about a month later, he ended his campaign following a report that he had sexually assaulted a woman he once dated, which he denied. That set off a weekslong scramble for Democrats to replace him on the ballot, culminating with a party convention at which former state Senate President Troy Jackson became Democrats’ new nominee.

July 2026 – Lindsey Graham dies

The sudden death of Sen. Lindsey Graham shocked Washington but also touched off a scramble for South Carolina Republicans to replace him on the November ballot. Gov. Henry McMaster appointed the late senator’s sister, Darline Graham, to fill his seat, and she then won Trump’s support to seek a full term. Boosted by the president, Darline Graham went on to secure the nomination via a primary runoff, but her general election against Democrat Annie Andrews has tightened significantly.

September 2026 – Trump has starring role at GOP midterm convention

Republicans gathered in Dallas for a first-ever midterm convention. The two-day event offered them a chance to hone their message, fire up voters and lavish praise upon Trump, the gathering’s brainchild. Speakers, including Trump, stoked fears about democratic socialism, but polls showed the event didn’t provide the GOP with the bounce the party was anticipating. The president followed the convention with a series of rallies in red states, where he implored Americans to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”

October 2026 – A tale of two Dan Sullivans in Alaska

Alaska’s competitive Senate race features two candidates with the same name: Dan S. Sullivan, the GOP incumbent, and retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., listed on the ballot with no party affiliation. Former Rep. Mary Peltola, the Democratic nominee, has said she was unaware of the effort to recruit the second Sullivan, but The New York Times reported that top aides to her campaign were closely involved in the ballot-stacking plan. The Trump administration is attempting to block certification of the results if the incumbent doesn’t win, but, on Sunday, a district judge dismissed the lawsuit.

November 2026 – Haley Stevens endorses Mike Rogers in Michigan

Less than 48 hours before polls were set to open on Election Day, Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens served up a November surprise Sunday, endorsing Republican Mike Rogers for Senate over Abdul El-Sayed, who had narrowly bested her in an August Democratic primary. While it was unclear how much influence her late decision could have on the race, a high-profile intraparty fight was surely not how Democrats wanted to close out the campaign. Even so, the El-Sayed campaign said Sunday was its biggest fundraising day, bringing in $2.4 million.

_____