Surrounded by a veritable feast of packaged deli meats, Oreo cookies, sliced Wonder Bread and other grocery items, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump promised that if re-elected, he would “immediately bring prices down, starting on day one.”

Not so simple, it turns out.

Now 100 days into Trump’s second term, the costs of everyday goods continue to rise, despite his false claims to the contrary. Meanwhile, warnings of even higher price spikes, fueled by his sweeping tariffs, have many shoppers worried that the worst is yet to come.

“I was in Whole Foods yesterday, and whoa boy,” Kay Briggs, an 86-year-old resident of Alamo, California, a suburb outside Walnut Creek, said recently.

Briggs found a better deal on a trip to her local Trader Joe’s, paying $11.99 a pound for salmon fillets — still well above the price she had been used to. “It was $9.99 for years,” she said.

Since Trump took office in January, the Consumer Price Index, which measures the goods and services purchased by a typical U.S. household, has risen about 0.7%. That’s a slightly faster pace than in the months leading up to Trump’s return to the presidency. But it’s still far behind the surge in post-pandemic inflation during the Biden administration, which Trump seized upon in his successful bid to win back the White House.

Grocery items that have seen substantial price jumps recently include coffee, up 5% to $7.39 per pound, and ground beef, up 3.5% to $5.79 per pound, according to federal data. Egg prices, which have soared due to the avian flu, spiked 26% to $6.23 a dozen.

Sean Randolph, a senior director with the Bay Area Council Economic Institute, strained to identify a single Trump policy that might meaningfully bring down costs. Instead, he echoed the view shared by most economists that Trump’s tariffs on nearly all imports — including a 145% tax on Chinese goods — will soon mean price increases on everything from avocados and orange juice to strollers and flat-screen televisions.

“Consumer prices will be significantly higher,” he said. “We just don’t know by how much.”

Even as his tariff announcements have triggered mass stock market sell-offs and shaken investor confidence in U.S.-backed debt, Trump maintains the economic impacts of his trade policies have been overstated. He contends the higher tariffs are necessary to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. and strike more favorable trade deals with other nations.

The American public, however, doesn’t appear to be buying his arguments.

According to a new Gallup poll, 62% of U.S. adults believe the tariffs will cost the country more in the long run than they will benefit it financially. Just 36% believe the opposite.

At the same time, consumer sentiment — a measure of people’s optimism about the economy and their personal finances — has fallen to near-record lows.

For San Jose, California, resident Alyce Thornhill, steep grocery costs have meant cutting back on eggs and milk. The only meat she now buys is chicken, and the 24-year-old has even stopped picking up her daily medication because the price has skyrocketed.

“It’s pretty bleak to be a young person in the United States, especially in the Bay Area,” Thornhill said. “If it’s like, rent is whatever – more than half of our income, then what? What do you have?”

Thornhill, a graduate student and teacher, relies on food stamps to help buy groceries but has found herself turning more to fast food restaurants to save.

“If you’re low-income and your purpose is to just feed yourself and sustain yourself, sometimes eating not-so-healthy fast food is more sustainable than getting organic groceries and vegetables,” she said.

Since higher inflation began to take hold in March 2021, overall food prices in the U.S. have climbed 24%.

Sush Gill, of San Jose, said high gas prices have forced her to make tough decisions about planning family vacations.

“We’re trying to be super conscious about what kind of road trips we’re making, because everything is so expensive,” she said.

Still, the price for a gallon of regular in California was $4.79, down from $5.40 a year ago, according to AAA.

Experts say that while lower prices at the pump may come as some relief to drivers, it could be the result of slowing global demand as economic activity stalls in response to the new tariffs. Trump has vowed to lower gas prices by opening up more areas for oil drilling, though a promised surge in crude oil production has yet to materialize.

Exactly when the full impact of the tariffs could be felt is unclear. That’s because most imported goods now on store shelves and in distributors’ warehouses came into the country before officials began assessing the new charges on items arriving at U.S. ports earlier this month.

“I know it feels like forever, but it was just a few weeks ago,” said Christopher Thornberg, founder of consulting firm Beacon Economics in Los Angeles.

As a result, those pre-tariff items will likely continue to be sold at roughly the same prices until the inventory runs out, which economists say could happen by this summer. At that point, the increased tariff costs are expected to be reflected in the prices of most imports.

That assumes, however, that foreign goods reach the U.S. in the first place. Already, the shipping industry is reporting that cargo arrivals have started to drop, raising the prospect of barren shelves across the country in the coming weeks.

Briggs, the Trader Joe’s shopper from Alamo, said it’s hard to know what to make of the constant stream of tariff news, which can seem to change by the hour.

Even as financial analysts and experts make dire forecasts about the Trump economy, she remains cautiously optimistic.

“If we can just hold on a bit,” Briggs said, “I hope the tariffs can be effective in the long run.”

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