Is a Democratic blue wave going to miss Florida ... again?

TAMPA, Fla. — With less than two weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms, Democrats across the nation have plenty of reasons to feel optimistic.

President Donald Trump’s approval rating is the lowest of any president in 80 years. Pollsters, pundits and prediction markets say Democrats are likely to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives and could even win the Senate — an unthinkable scenario earlier this year, before a costly war deepened economic woes. Democrats could gain a majority of governorships for the first time in 16 years.

In Florida, polls and election handicappers show tightening races for governor, U.S. Senate and several congressional districts that were redrawn to favor Republicans.

But Democrats in Florida are up against one of the country’s most formidable political machines. After nearly 30 years of uninterrupted electoral success, Florida Republicans hold commanding leads in voter registration, money and institutional experience that may counter even the most hostile of national moods.

“Florida now seems to be a reliably red state,” said Sean Freeder, director of the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab. “Even in a year that’s as wavy as possible for Democrats, it’s not enough to where we can say that Democrats have an advantage here in Florida.”

His take? “We think the Republicans still probably have the slight advantage.”

Democrats like Monica Petrella, a volunteer turnout coordinator in South Tampa, don’t believe Florida is out of reach. Yet while optimistic, she’s bracing for another letdown if a blue wave stops short here like it did in 2018.

“If we lose this election,” she said, “we might be closing the door on the possibility of a future statewide Democratic win.”

Elections and consequences

Polls this year show Democrat David Jolly running in a narrow race against Republican Byron Donalds for the open governor’s seat. Meanwhile, Democrat Angie Nixon is running in a closer-than-expected race for U.S. Senate against Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, the former attorney general whom Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed last year.

According to a University of North Florida poll published this week, Donalds led Jolly by 2 percentage points, and Moody led Nixon by 4 percentage points. The poll has a margin of error of nearly 3 points either way for each candidate. Given that, the pollster said either gubernatorial candidate winning would be “unsurprising.”

While no election year is like another, the similarities between now and 2018 are striking. That year’s midterm election had Trump in the White House. Florida Republicans and Democrats battled over a U.S. Senate seat and an open governorship.

Democrats here are still recovering from what happened next.

Nationally, Democrats won the U.S. House with a majority of more than 30 seats. But in Florida, Democrat Bill Nelson lost the Senate seat he had held for three terms to Republican Rick Scott, and Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Andrew Gillum lost to GOP standard-bearer DeSantis. Both losses were by razor-thin margins that required recounts.

Florida ceased being considered a swing state.

Democrats’ reasons for hope faded as the GOP ascended to near-total dominance. DeSantis won reelection in 2022 by nearly 20 percentage points. Two years later, Trump won the state by 13 percentage points. No Democrat currently holds a statewide office, and Republicans command a supermajority in the Legislature. Meanwhile, the electorate shifted from Democrats holding an edge of about 500,000 active registered voters to one this year where Republicans are up by 1.5 million.

So now Democrats, despite facing similar conditions to those eight years ago, must overcome a swing of 2 million registered voters. For all the talk of the Iran war, gas prices, affordability and an unpopular Trump, that baked-in advantage in registered voters gives Republicans more than hope that they’ll prevail.

“We’re seeing a repeat of what 2018 was,” said Jake Hoffman, executive director of the Tampa Bay Young Republicans. “The difference is just the big increase we’ve had in the registration of Republicans.”

But even DeSantis, who regularly touts the GOP edge in registered voters, said their advantage isn’t foolproof. On Fox News with Sean Hannity this week, the governor said a million of today’s registered Republicans had been independents or Democrats when he first took office.

“Those are folks you got to earn their votes. We got to make sure we’re turning out our base voters,” DeSantis said. “So do not sleep on Florida. We’ve got a lot of work to do.”

Down to the wire

Democrats know they must win Republicans and independents if they have a shot at winning statewide races again.

Jolly has made appealing beyond Democrats a defining principle.

“It would be impossible for this race to be competitive for governor if I wasn’t a Democrat bringing in independents and coalitions,” Jolly recently said on “The Ryan Gorman Show” on NewsRadio WFLA.

While Nixon is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America and is considered to be on the far left, she often speaks about the importance of reaching out to those outside of the Democratic Party.

“It’s not about progressive or moderate,” Nixon told the Tampa Bay Times before her rally with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., last weekend in Ybor City. “It’s not even about Democrat or Republican. It is actually about rooting out corruption.”

Polls show Jolly and Nixon are drawing double digits from Republicans and are ahead with independents. But the reliability of polls has fallen into question during the Trump era. Republicans were underestimated in the 2016, 2018, 2022 and 2024 polls. And the University of North Florida poll in the 2018 race’s final stretch showed Gillum with a 6-percentage-point lead, well outside the margin of error.

“Republicans are just generally a little bit less likely to talk to pollsters,” Freeder said.

A knock against Democrats in Florida is that they don’t stick to a consistent message. That’s not been the case with Nixon and Jolly. Both have run disciplined campaigns that don’t waver from the core idea that Florida has grown unaffordable for most while the few in power profit off of corruption.

Faced with a massive deficit in campaign funds, Democrats have scored precious earned media in their legal battle with Republicans over a leaked grand jury report that concluded the DeSantis administration misused $10 million in public money for political purposes.

Not only does that buy them free airtime hammering a central campaign message, but it unites Democrats up and down the ticket.

The focus on Hope Florida may be dampening Republican enthusiasm, the University of North Florida poll said. Independent voters seemed more concerned about Moody’s ties to Hope Florida than they were about Nixon’s ties to socialism. That’s despite an appellate court earlier this month lambasting the grand jury report as being “error-ridden” and ordering it expunged from the record. That court’s majority opinion said the $10 million was “never public money” and that the transfer was a lawful executive action.

“Given the anti-incumbent mood of swing voters, both Donalds’ and Moody’s success depends on Republicans not falling too far behind Democrats in terms of turnout and enthusiasm,” Freeder said.

Republicans point to their own polling that shows they have leads outside the margin of error. Ryan Smith, the chief strategist for Donalds, has said the campaign’s overwhelming cash advantage will be felt in the coming days, with a turnout operation that includes mail, text, door-knocking, and digital and Black and Hispanic voter outreach that Democrats don’t have the money to match.

While money is no object with Republicans, Democrats are scrounging for loose change. Other competitive races in the U.S. are drawing national dollars away from Florida. Democrats get more bang for the buck in spending on tight races in Georgia, Ohio and Arizona — which combined are close to what it costs to compete in Florida.

Jolly and Nixon have managed to open national purse strings a bit. The Democratic Governors Association, for instance, gave $1 million to Jolly’s campaign this week. But much of that money is coming late.

Petrella was a paid regional organizing director for Democrats in 2018. She said in Hillsborough County, 25 field organizers helped with phone banks, organizing volunteers and distributing literature. This year? There’s just one, she said.

“When I look at what Republicans have in terms of resources, in terms of experience?” Petrella said, “I mean, that’s why they win.”

Early voting started this week, and Democrats jumped to an early turnout lead. Republicans typically vote later, leading up to and on Election Day, so drawing too many lessons from turnout this week is tricky.

Still, Petrella brims with confidence when she canvasses neighborhoods to talk to voters. She lists all the reasons why, despite the Republican advantages, Democrats will win this time.

“Democrats aren’t dead here in Florida,” she said. “Not yet.”