Israel is holding its first election since the October 2023 Hamas attack that traumatized the nation and triggered the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, a vote many consider to be the country’s most consequential in decades.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 77, is seeking reelection on Tuesday, bolstered by the endorsement of U.S. President Donald Trump. Israel’s longest-serving leader says the military campaigns he’s led over the past three years have made the country safer.

Netanyahu’s opponents, led by 66-year-old former armed forces chief Gadi Eisenkot, say the prime minister is Israel’s greatest threat and the main reason for its growing isolation, including among Americans. They point to his indictment for bribery — an allegation Netanyahu denies — and partnership with nationalist extremists such as Itamar Ben Gvir, who have influenced the government’s anti-Arab rhetoric and policies.

Voting began at 7 a.m. local time (5 a.m. U.K.) and will close at 10 p.m., when the first exit polls will be published. Turnout stood at 16.7% as of 10 a.m., according to the central election committee, the highest level at this stage in the voting process since 1981.

Polling stations in parts of Tel Aviv were packed on Tuesday morning, with lines snaking through schools — where many of the booths have been set up — and spilling into streets. Some of the political parties have set up stands blaring out music, and are handing out balloons, sweets and stickers to voters and their children.

Polls have consistently forecast that neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot’s blocs will secure enough votes to claim the 61-seat parliamentary majority needed to form a government. Complex, weeks-long negotiations and even a possible second election could follow.

During that time, Netanyahu could continue as a caretaker prime minister in a transitional government. That would enable him to potentially attack Iran again, as both he and Trump have threatened, reigniting a war that’s been in a state of deadlock for several months.

In Israel, unlike in the U.S., the war against Iran was broadly popular, in part because Tehran sponsors militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. What has hurt Netanyahu is that it’s turned into indefinite conflict with no end in sight and hasn’t dislodged the theocratic government in Tehran.

While Netanyahu says regime change is a priority, Eisenkot is advocating narrower goals. He says Iran’s nuclear program must be stopped, militarily if necessary. But he wants more focus on diplomacy and told Army Radio this month it is “not an achievable goal” to overthrow the Iranian government.

Beyond national security, voters are casting ballots on a set of domestic issues — including whether to draft ultra-Orthodox young men into the army. The power of the Supreme Court and judicial system, which Netanyahu has sought to undermine, transparency and corruption are also on the agenda.

The economy has mostly taken a backseat. Israel has proved resilient in the face of multiple wars, with the shekel and the stock market outperforming most rich-world peers this year. Still, whoever leads the next government will have to deal with issues ranging from a soaring defense budget to rising sovereign debt levels and one of the world’s highest costs of living.

The Israeli Arab minority may end up as kingmakers, with turnout among the group that makes up about 20% of the population expected to be higher than previous elections. The two Israeli Arab parties — which accuse Netanyahu’s far-right government of racial discrimination and neglect — have offered to support a coalition led by Eisenkot. Some of his partners, however, have vowed they won’t serve in any government relying on Arabs.

Tens of thousands of Israeli expatriates have flown in to cast their votes, with many expected to be supporting the opposition too.

Netanyahu loyalists remain defiant. While the prime minister has been criticized for failing to prevent the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack — in which militants killed 1,200 people and abducted 250 — his supporters blame the security establishment and say only Netanyahu has the skill and experience to defend the nation. At least 74,000 people have been killed in Israel’s subsequent campaign in Gaza, according to the Hamas-led health ministry there, and the territory has been reduced to near rubble.

For Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where violence by Jewish settlers on Arabs has soared since the Hamas attack, the election is unlikely to lead to any immediate changes. Like Netanyahu, Eisenkot has ruled out a two-state solution, saying it would threaten Israel’s security, though he’s condemned the government for supporting Israelis who have attacked Palestinians.

Eisenkot also says Hamas, which still rules around 30% of Gaza and the territory’s 2 million people, must be crushed, signaling he would not withdraw Israeli troops.

Netanyahu’s Likud party says Israel has turned the tables on its Iran-backed enemies since 2023. Beyond controlling most of Gaza and largely stopping Hamas rocket fire into Israel, the military has severely degraded Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and, along with the U.S., damaged Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, even if Tehran’s leadership remains far from defeated.

The settler violence in the West Bank has shocked many people abroad and led to sanctions by European nations that count themselves as firm allies of Israel. Within the Israeli opposition, there is a call to crack down on the perpetrators and a sense that Netanyahu is reluctant to do that lest he angers the religious-nationalists in his coalition.

Still, in contrast to a couple of decades ago, few Israelis consider the settlements illegitimate and the vast majority are against a Palestinian state.

On Sunday, Netanyahu’s campaign put out an advert showing an AI-generated image of an atomic bomb destroying Tel Aviv, with the message that Iran is building a nuclear weapon. Trump has twice endorsed Netanyahu, saying the two of them need to work together to end the threat from the Islamic Republic.

Yet there’s little evidence Trump’s backing will do Netanyahu much good and some indication it will backfire. The U.S. leader’s popularity has waned in recent months, partly because many Israelis feel he no longer prioritizes the country’s security as much as before.

Eisenkot, who’s no dove and who lost a son in the war in Gaza, accuses Netanyahu of hysteria and fear mongering. Yair Golan, another former military leader who heads the left-leaning Democrats party, added: “On Tuesday we will replace the sowers of panic and return Israel to security and sanity.”

Eisenkot warned in a final campaign rally on Sunday that Netanyahu might not permit an orderly transition if he loses.

“I know Netanyahu — he will stop at nothing, no lie and no extreme measure, to remain in power,” said Eisenkot, who served briefly in a Netanyahu war Cabinet after the Oct. 7 attacks.

—With assistance from Chris Miller.

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