Republicans capture most US House seats in Tampa Bay, but Castor wins

TAMPA, Fla. — When all the votes are tallied, Tampa Bay will have helped decide who controls the U.S. House.

After Gov. Ron DeSantis and state Republicans redrew Florida’s congressional map, a number of districts became hot battlegrounds. In four races, Democrats fought to hold on to seats redrawn to favor Republicans. In a few others, Democrats worked to claim seats deep in President Donald Trump’s territory on the heels of his historically low approval ratings.

In Tampa Bay’s congressional races, Republican incumbents held on to their seats by much narrower margins than in 2024. And in Hillsborough’s District 14, Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor maintained her grip on a redrawn seat where registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats.

In District 13, which covers parts of Pinellas and Pasco, GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna was a key target of Democrats, despite the new district favoring Trump by more than 13 points. She survived by a narrow margin, leading Democratic challenger Leela Gray by less than 1% as of 9:30 p.m., with most votes tallied.

Democrats also targeted the open race for District 16, where former New College Foundation leader Sydney Gruters, a Republican, won by around 4 points against former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner, a Democrat.

As the results shook out in Florida, the outlook for the rest of the country hung in the balance. The New York Times projected Democrats were very likely to retake the U.S. House as of 9 p.m. And Democrats flipped North Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat early in the night, increasing the likelihood that they could retake the upper chamber as well.

In Tampa Bay, Republicans won or were leading in four of five races. In South Florida, Democrats appeared poised to keep two more redrawn red seats. Even Democratic Rep. Darren Soto, who had an uphill battle in a Central Florida district redrawn to favor Trump by about 18 points, kept his race in recount territory, leading his GOP challenger by around 0.4% with 99% of votes tallied.

Should Soto stay in the lead, Democrats could keep their eight U.S. House seats in Florida.

Statewide, Republican incumbents appeared likely to hold on to their 20 U.S. House seats. But multiple races remained too close to call. With most votes tallied, GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar of Miami and Republican candidate Ryan Elijah in the Orlando area held leads of less than 1% for seats Trump won by double digits.

Here’s how congressional candidates in Tampa Bay fared after this year’s redistricting.

District 12

GOP Rep. Gus Bilirakis, one of Tampa Bay’s longest-serving congressional politicians, handily dispatched Democratic challenger Kimberly Overman, a former Hillsborough commissioner.

Bilirakis outraised Overman about 10-to-1. His newly drawn seat shed deep-red territory in Hernando and Citrus counties while gaining blue parts of west Tampa. Nevertheless, it favored Trump by 15 points in 2024.

Bilirakis bested Overman with nearly 53% of the vote compared to Overman’s nearly 46%. The Associated Press called the race for him just before 8 p.m.

Branden Scrivener, an independent candidate, had earned about 1.3% of the vote.

District 13

GOP Rep. Luna appeared to overcome a serious challenge from Democrats, heading on to her third term by a much smaller margin than last time.

Luna led Gray, a Democrat, by almost 1% with most votes tallied, 49.5% to 48.6%. The Associated Press had not yet called the race as of 9:15 p.m. Political forecasters such as Cook Political Report had expected the race could get competitive, though they gave Republicans the advantage.

Democrats heavily targeted Luna’s seat in 2024 as well. Then, she won against Democrat Whitney Fox by 10 points in a less red district.

Redistricting was meant to shore up the seat for Luna. District 13 lost parts of St. Petersburg and Gulfport while gaining a patch of Pasco County, shifting 2 points to the right.

But the results suggest Luna’s Trump-aligned brand turned off some past supporters. In the run-up to the election, she emphasized her record on issues with bipartisan appeal, such as beach renourishment and her work to ban congressional stock trading.

No-party affiliated candidate Tony D’Arrigo received less than 2% of the vote.

District 14

Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor, a 20-year Hillsborough incumbent, faced her toughest reelection fight yet in a reshaped seat that favored Trump by more than 10 points in 2024.

Still, she prevailed over GOP challenger Mike Beltran by 5 points, a 15-point shift from Trump’s performance just two years ago.

Beltran, a former state representative, emphasized his conservative principles and willingness to buck his own party on the campaign trail.

Most forecasters considered the race a toss-up. Both parties sunk millions into competing ads in Tampa and eastern Hillsborough County.

Castor’s decisive victory is perhaps a testament to her name recognition as an incumbent, as well as how deeply underwater the Republican brand is with no-party affiliated voters.

District 15

Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee easily won reelection against her Democratic opponent, Army veteran Robert People. Lee will serve a third term in a district that includes Temple Terrace and parts of East Tampa, as well as chunks of Pasco, Hernando and Citrus counties.

Lee won a sizable 54% of the vote Tuesday, backed by a $2.7 million war chest. She raised $33 for every $1 People raised, with his total fundraising sitting at roughly $82,000 as of Thursday.

The Associated Press called the race at 8:09 p.m., and more than 22,000 votes separated both candidates with 93% of the vote tallied.

Lee told the Tampa Bay Times her top three priorities, if reelected, were strengthening the economy and leading in innovation, supporting the military and veterans, and promoting community safety.

A redrawn map has shifted Citrus County into Florida’s 15th Congressional District, and Lee has said she had plans to open a Citrus satellite office if she were reelected.

Prior to her time in Congress, Lee was a prosecutor, Hillsborough judge and served as the Florida secretary of state.

District 16

Voters in a vastly reshaped 16th Congressional District have decided who they want as their next federal representative: Republican Sydney Gruters, former leader of the New College Foundation and wife of the Republican National Committee chairperson.

Fueled by a Trump endorsement and more than $1.6 million in total fundraising, Gruters bested Kelly Kirschner, the former mayor of Sarasota who ran on an affordability-centered message.

Gruters won around 51% of the vote compared to Kirschner’s roughly 47%. That margin is narrow considering Trump won the new District 16 by almost 14 points in 2024.

Gruters will serve a district that now spans slices of seven counties. Longshot candidate Mark Davis, who was on the ballot but not associated with either the Republican or Democratic party, won less than 2% of the vote.

Gruters told the Times her top priorities were lowering the cost of living for working families and protecting seniors and veterans by advocating for Social Security, Medicare and other benefits.