Paul Zeise: AFC championship suddenly doesn't seem so far out of Steelers' reach

Paul Zeise, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on Dec 17, 2025

Published in Football

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PITTSBURGH — The Steelers’ win over the Dolphins on Monday night was impressive, but mostly because they did what good teams do to bad teams.

It was not close. The Steelers dominated the Dolphins and may have even ended the Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa era all in one night. I thought the Dolphins had a little energy and momentum, but to quote Dennis Green, they are who they thought we they were. And that is not a compliment in any way.

The fact that the Steelers beat up a hapless Dolphins team is not worthy of some of the chest puffing I have seen from the fans and even some media types who cover the team. But I don’t think it is insignificant, either, as it made very clear that the Steelers are one of the good teams in the league and probably a playoff team.

There is a part of the Steelers fan base that is jaded, though, and that’s because just getting into the playoffs is not enough for them anymore. It has been so long since the Steelers have won a playoff game that the “non-losing seasons” streak is now mostly a subject that evokes disdain.

I don’t know what is going to happen or even how good the Steelers are, but I do know that this is the same thing that could be said about every team in contention for the AFC.

There are no teams so good that they are forcing everyone else to play for second. There are no great teams in the AFC, there are no unbeatable teams in the AFC, and there are no teams that don’t have some key flaws.

That means the AFC playoffs will come down to matchups and who plays well, and the Steelers have demonstrated when they play well they can beat just about anyone. The Steelers at their worst have been awful, but at their best, they have been fun to watch and hard to beat.

I do think there are two matchups — against the Texans or Bills — that could potentially be fatal for the Steelers and for different reasons.

The Texans have the best defense in the NFL, and it is seemingly getting better every time I watch it. They only give up 269 yards and 16.3 points per game, and both figures are the top in their respective categories.

Houston’s defense has humbled some of the best offenses and quarterbacks in the NFL, but what makes the Texans really scary is the offense is seemingly improving every week. C.J. Stroud is still a young quarterback, so he is being protected as he grows and gains experience. And he is clearly gaining confidence with every throw.

The Bills already beat the Steelers once and did it at Acrisure Stadium, but that isn’t what makes them dangerous. It is the fact that they have Superman Josh Allen at quarterback, and he is clearly the best player in the NFL. I don’t even think the Bills are great, I think they are actually mostly pedestrian, but Allen has the ability to make plays nobody else can make, and he has a knack for late-game heroics.

The Steelers might be able to avoid both teams, and that would be in their best interest because both of those teams are a threat. I am not saying the Steelers couldn’t beat either team, I am just saying those are the two teams that I would favor to beat the Steelers.

One other team that is intriguing is Jacksonville, as the Jaguars have a really good defense, but it is hard to trust Trevor Lawrence until he proves he can get it done when it really matters. He has been a bit of an enigma, but it seems like he may be starting to figure it out a little bit.

The rest of the field has teams that are similar to the Steelers in that at they are good but not great and have often resorted to being resourceful, not dominant, to win games.

The Broncos and Patriots have gaudy records, but there are very few people who believe in either team. The Broncos seem to win in miraculous ways almost every week, and I am not sure facing Bo Nix in the playoffs is a scary proposition. The Patriots have been propped up by beating a lot of bad teams.

The Chargers have an awful offensive line, and that means their quarterback, Justin Herbert, gets the snot beat out of him every game. It is actually hard to watch.

The Ravens, if they somehow were to make it as a 10-7 wild card, have all kinds of issues, and the Colts have a quarterback who should probably soon land an endorsement from Geritol.

All of this is to say that the AFC doesn’t seem like it is out of the Steelers’ reach. Sure, they have to play well and sure, they have to stay healthy and get the right matchups. But so does every other team in the conference.

Aaron Rodgers showed against the Dolphins and Ravens that he can still play at a high level when he needs to, and the defense has shown an uncanny ability to get key stops when absolutely needed.

Those are two crucial elements in winning in the playoffs, and that’s especially true against a field that is as watered down as the AFC seems to be.

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